Predictions for 2005
by The Washington Staff
of The Scripps Howard News Service
January 01, 2005
Saturday
Washington - Two Supreme Court vacancies touch off bitter fights
on Capitol Hill ... a 41-cent stamp for first-class mail ...
Osama remains at large ... Social Security reform stalls ....
no al Qaeda attacks in the United States.
Those are the highlights of
what our crystal ball sees ahead in 2005. Here are the details:
The departure of Chief Justice William Rehnquist
and another justice touches off a bitter battle in the Senate
that will surpass the venomous 1987 defeat of Robert Bork. There
will be a vicious filibuster that will defy GOP efforts to crack
it, and Democrats will use the Supreme Court fights as a logjam
to stop President Bush's legislative agenda.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice finds her
biggest headaches come from our so-called "allies"
in Europe, who will increasingly forge an independent diplomacy
for dealing with Iran, Russia, China and Africa.
Even Britain sets a policy
different from that of the United States. Tony Blair's government
falls apart, and the prime minister gambles on moving the election
up from 2006, with disastrous results when he is deserted by
his party's left wing.
President Bush will find little comfort in his
55-seat GOP majority in the Senate, as maverick Republicans will
derail his Social Security privatization plan and tax package.
New restrictions on civil suits for medical fraud will pass,
but doctors will pay a price in much lower general reimbursement
rates under Medicare and Medicaid.
Expect community and general
hospitals to close up shop, as reliance on new drugs and creative
use of outpatient clinics reduce need for them.
There will be much hand-wringing over looming
shortages of doctors to take care of retiring baby boomers.
NASA will resume space shuttle flights by late
summer or early fall. The campaign by astronomers to use one
of the shuttle flights to save the Hubble telescope wins support
in Congress, but it's going to be 2006 before the repair mission
is launched.
Despite the constant shortage
of supplies due to shuttle grounding, the International Space
Station will continue to have a crew, but the shuttles will play
a diminishing role in serving the station's needs.
The big development in 2005
will be the launching of more private ventures lofting both satellites
and people into orbit, with space projects costing millions,
rather than billions.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., will make
it clear she's not running for president in '08.
Lifestyle and entertainment developments:
Jamie Foxx wins the best-actor
Oscar for his depiction of Ray Charles. "The Aviator"
wins as the best movie of 2004.
In the vast wasteland, "The
Bachelor" runs its course. The same goes for "ER"
and "The West Wing." Also heading for the exits: reality
TV.
"The O.C." rules
as popular teen angst drama on TV.
Meanwhile, Lindsay Lohan becomes
Hollywood's reigning starlet, Britney Spears finds a new role
in motherhood and ditsy Jessica Simpson is forgotten.
Freed from house detention,
home-style maven Martha Stewart fails to make a TV comeback.
Hot: Digital music, including
MP3 players. Not hot: CDs.
On the sports pages:
Expect an all-Pennsylvania
Super Bowl in February, when the Pittsburgh Steelers square off
against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Breaking 60 years of futility,
the Chicago Cubs win the National League pennant and advance
to the World Series for the first time since 1945.
The Major League Baseball players'
union caves to public pressure, and agrees to a tougher steroid
testing policy.
Tiger Woods returns to form,
and wins one of the four major tournaments. But he won't regain
his title as the No. 1 golfer in the world.
Despite being decimated by
suspensions after a nasty brawl with Detroit Piston fans, the
Indiana Pacers thumb a nose at critics and still make the playoffs.
Steve Spurrier's return to
college football at South Carolina is mixed as he falls short
of winning the SEC title, but upsets his former team, Florida,
led by new coach Urban Meyer.
Former communist economies in China and Russia
roar this year. But Chinese central planners are going to fret
about inflation accompanying all the economic exuberance and
take the first steps to stifle the growth. That can only be good
news for what remains of America's textile manufacturers, battered
by cheap Chinese imports.
Severe drought conditions spread in Wyoming and
Montana this summer. And a busier-than-average hurricane season
is also in the cards for the Southeast.
The elusive Osama bin Laden will not be captured
or killed this year.
A series of elections will occur in Iraq, with
minor disruptions. But the violence won't subside. Washington
will pull nearly 20,000 troops out of Iraq during the year.
The United States will not attack or otherwise
go to war with any country this year, even though the nuclear
aspirations of Iran and North Korea will cause no end of dyspepsia
in Washington. The administration is particularly concerned that
North Korea's careless rush to build more nuclear weapons could
result in a deadly accident.
Other global hot spots: Kosovo, Haiti, and breakaway
Soviet territories such as Moldova and Abkhazia.
The Postal Rate Commission will OK a 4-cent increase
in the 37-cent rate for first-class stamps.
And how did we do last year?
We were spot on about the
Bush-Cheney ticket having electoral magic, and we forecast the
Cabinet departures that followed. We were right on the mark,
too, in seeing the impact gay marriage would have in the election.
We told you there would be no terrorist attacks in the United
States, and forecast the Fed would reverse course and begin ratcheting
up interest rates in 2004. But we didn't expect Saddam Hussein
to be captured so quickly, and we certainly didn't see John Kerry's
winning the Democratic presidential nomination.
Happy New Year.
Distributed by Scripps
Howard News Service...
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