March 09, 2020
Monday PM

Rick Santelli was his usual obnoxious self when on CNBC he suggested exposing everyone to the coronavirus, so that the effect on the markets and the economy would be short-lived; and he did in hindsight apologize for his bluntness; but the very clear point he has made is that the impact on the markets and on the economy is unpredictable and apparently long-lasting. The trend on the markets is down, and there is no identifiable bottom currently discernible.

The World Health Organization has emphasized that unlike the flu there is no guarantee that come spring and warmer weather the coronavirus transmission rate will decline.

There is no likely vaccine for 18 to 24 months.

Comparative history of pandemics such as the 1918-19 Spanish flu indicate the likelihood that were the coronavirus to recede during the spring and summer months, the second wave beginning in the fall will be worse than the first wave.

Airlines are forecasting losses for the year of $70 to $120 billion.

Travel, already restricted in many areas around the globe, has become even more self-restricted by the fear response.

Mary Lynne Dahl is generally a somewhat more conservative individual than I, but in this instance there is a definite role reversal, for my recommendation is for all seniors to get out of the markets and park their money now. Call it an “excess of caution,” if you will, as contrasted to Mary Lynne’s “excess of zeal.”

As an investment counselor it is basic boiler plate to recommend staying with the market despite its ebbs and flows, and this is generally sound advice from day-to-day and month-to-month. This, however, is a severe systemic shock at the international level that cannot be controlled economically by routine or ordinary methods. Where it is going to end up, no one knows, but for the next 12 to 24 months the economic trend is going to be down.

Because of this uncertainty I consider it wise policy at this juncture for all seniors who are not routine stock traders themselves to get out of the markets and park their money in such otherwise ridiculous things as FDIC-insured CDs.

This is a time to hold on to what you have, not look for unlikely gains in a messy economy that is very unlikely to produce much, if anything, in the way of growth this year.

Park your money, so it is there to re-invest and grow when we all get beyond this situation.

David G Hanger
Ketchikan, Alaska

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Editor's Note:

The text of this letter was NOT edited by the SitNews Editor.

Received March 09, 2020 - Published March 09, 2020

Related:

MONEY MATTERS COLUMN:  WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE STOCK MARKET NOW? WHAT DO I DO? By MARY LYNNE DAHL, Certified Financial Planner®
SitNews - February 29, 2020

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