July 30, 2007
Monday

(SitNews) - Alaska's population is projected to most likely increase by 25 percent, nearly 170,000 people, from 2006 to 2030, based on new population projections released by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

The State of Alaska

The statewide population is projected to increase through 2030. As the state's population ages, annual growth is expected to slow. Rather than forecasting economic conditions, the projections are based on the current population, and historical trends in birth, death and migration levels. While the most likely projection is approximately 840,000 Alaska residents by 2030, based on variations in births and migration that Alaska has experienced over recent years, the total population may be as high as 950,000, or as low as 730,000.

Alaska's population aged 65 or more is expected to grow at the highest rate over the projection period, from 45,489 in 2006 to 134,391 in 2030. Alaska's school-age population (ages 5 to 17) is projected to increase from 141,291 to 169,944, and the traditional working-age population (ages 18 to 64) is projected to increase from 429,817 to 469,916.

Alaska Natives

The Alaska Native population is projected to increase from 118,884 in 2006 to 162,820 in 2030. The projected increase in the Alaska Native population is largely due to high rates of birth, but aging and increases in Native life expectancy are expected to play roles as well. Similar to the state population as a whole, the Alaska Native population aged 65 or more is expected to increase strongly, from 7,212 in 2006 to 19,004 in 2030. With high rates of birth relative to other groups in the state, the Alaska Native share of the total youth population is expected to increase over the projection period.

Regions, Boroughs and Census Areas

Rates of growth are projected to vary across the state's economic regions, ranging from strong growth projected for the Anchorage/Mat-Su Region, to some population loss in the Southeast Region.

The population in the Ketchikan Gateway Borough is projected to decrease from 13,174 to 11,095 by 2030.

All economic regions except Southeast are projected to grow. Population projections for the boroughs and census areas within Alaska's economic regions vary further, with several areas projected to decline in population. While aging plays an important role at the region and borough level, much of the projected population change for each area is based on rates of migration experienced over the past 15 years.

On the Web:

Research and Analysis Population projections
Click on "Population & Census" on the left, then "Estimates & Projections."
http://almis.labor.state.ak.us.

Source of News:

Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section
www.labor.state.ak.us

 

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