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Alaska: 2011 Economic Forecast Released - The Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development released its annual industry employment forecast for 2011 in the January issue of “Alaska Economic Trends.” The forecast - which covers Anchorage, Fairbanks, Southeast and the state as a whole - predicts continued economic recovery this year.

“While Alaska felt the effects of the national recession, we fared much better than most states,” Commissioner Click Bishop said in the magazine. Employment levels recovered in 2010 and for the second year in state history, Alaska’s unemployment rate was lower than the nation’s.

At this time last year, the department of labor reported a 2009 loss of 2,100 jobs statewide and predicted a loss of 1,400 jobs in 2010. Instead, statewide Alaska added 1,900 jobs between 2009 and 2010. The “Trends” forecast for 2011 is similar to the 2010 estimate: modest growth of about 1,800 jobs.

Most industries are likely to remain stable in 2011, with health care providing the largest number of new jobs. The department projects that continued strong commodity prices, a recovering visitor industry, improved consumer confidence, healthy fish harvests, and a strong fiscal position bode well for employment growth in Alaska this year.

Unlike the other areas, Southeast may face a slight decline in jobs. Economists expect structural demographic changes and hesitant tourists to erode employment in retail trade, transportation, and leisure and hospitality

According to the January 2011 "Trends" article by Mali Abrahamson, Economist with the Alaska Department of Labor, Southeast Alaska exceeded economic expectations in 2010. Even though economic forecasts predicted a loss of jobs, Southeast’s preliminary counts show a 0.4 percent net increase in nonfarm employment said Abrahamson.

Though the overall change in Southeast Alaska was small, there was movement in many sectors said Abrahamson in the January issue of Alaska Trends. Trade, transportation, manufacturing, information, construction, and leisure and hospitality lost jobs last year, while education, health care, professional and business services, and mining industries employment grew.

Abrahamson predicted that despite mild job recovery in Southeast Alaska in 2010 after a 2.2 percent decline the year before, overall employment in Southeast is expected to drop by 400 jobs, or 1.1 percent, in 2011.

Abrahamson predicted in "Trends" that structural demographic changes and hesitant tourists will continue to erode employment in the trade, transportation, leisure, and accommodation sectors. However, government, mining, and health care will provide enough ballast to keep overall Southeast Alaska job losses small.

Jobs in Southeast Alaska increased as population fell.

According to Economist Abrahamson's article, employment in Southeast has grown overall over the last two decades, but in the same period its population peaked in 1997 and has steadily declined since. This downward trend is expected to continue in the coming years.

While Alaska’s population has grown, Abrahamson reported that Southeast has lost nearly 4,500 people since the 1997 peak. Its population is older as well, with a median age of 39 in contrast to the statewide median of 33.5 years of age.

In general, the smaller population in Southeast Alaska will result in less overall demand for nonbasic goods and services. However, Abrahamson said, because growth differs among age groups , demand for some goods and services will be affected more than others. An aging population typically requires more social and health care services, reflected in the overall employment stability in that industry.

Abrahamson predicts that the weak U.S. economy will hurt tourism .The reduction in cruise ship passengers in 2010 hurt the Alaska visitor industry. Preliminary counts show cruise ship passenger numbers down 142,000 from 2009, and they are forecasted to be lower in 2011 as well said Economist Abrahamson in the Alaska Trends Economic Forecast report. Bed taxes, airline passengers, and out-of state ferry passengers also declined between 2008 and 2009.

While some cruise firms plan to add ships in 2011, overall visitor traffic will likely remain below 2009 levels. With slow predicted economic growth in the rest of the nation and the world, the tourism industry’s performance will certainly be lackluster rports Abrahamson.

Not only do visitor numbers decline in poor economic climates, but those who come are more likely to travel on a budget and spend less on goods, dining, and accommodations reports Abrahamson. - More...
Tuesday PM - January 11, 2011

Alaska: NOAA EXTENDS COMMENT PERIOD FOR WESTERN STELLER SEA LION PROTECTION MEASURES RULE - NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service is extending the comment period for the interim final rule to reduce commercial fishing for groundfish stocks in the Aleutian Islands. The objective of the rule is to ensure the groundfish fisheries are not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of or adversely modify critical habitat for the western distinct population segment of Steller sea lion.

The original public comment period for the interim final rule ends Wednesday, January 12, 2011. NOAA’s Fisheries Service filed with the Federal Register today a notice extending the public comment period for an additional 45 days, to February 28, 2011.

NOAA Fisheries published an interim final rule on December 13, 2010, to implement Steller sea lion protection measures to restrict primarily Atka mackerel and Pacific cod harvests in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands management area. Atka mackerel and Pacific cod are important prey species for Steller sea lions, and this action reduces potential competition for prey between Steller sea lions and the groundfish fisheries. A notice correcting errors in the interim final rule was published on December 29, 2010.

The comment period occurred over the holiday season, limiting the number of work days available to the public for developing a response to this action. At the request of and to provide adequate time for various stakeholders and other members of the public to comment on the interim final rule, NOAA Fisheries has decided to extend the public comment period for an additional 45 days, to end on February 28, 2011. - More...
Tuesday PM - January 11, 2011

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